Financial News Aggregator and a little more!

  • Relative Strength Spread
    The chart below is the spread between the relative strength leaders and relative strength laggards (top quartile of stocks in our ranks divided by the ...
  • Politics and Investing
    Last week Bloomberg reported that Americans recently broke the American Psychological Association’s anxiety meter for a record level of stress.  You read that right.  No, this is ...
  • Weekly RS Recap
    The table below shows the performance of a universe of mid and large cap U.S. equities, broken down by relative strength decile and quartile and ...
  • Sector Performance
    The table below shows performance of US sectors over the trailing 12, 6, and 1 month(s).  Performance updated through 2/15/2017. The performance above is based ...
  • High RS Diffusion Index
    The chart below measures the percentage of high relative strength stocks (top quartile of our ranks) that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe ...
  • Morning News: February 27, 2017
    Man Who Moved Oil With His Words Won’t Talk About It Anymore LSE-Deutsche Boerse Deal In Danger Fed Turns to Job Hoppers as 1950s Inflation ...
  • The Berkshire Letter
    Here’s Warren Buffett’s latest letter to shareholders. Even for those of you who don’t own any shares of Berkshire Hathaway, the annual letter makes for ...
  • Buy These Two S&P Losers?
  • CWS Market Review – February 24, 2017
    “90% of the people in the stock market, professionals and amateurs alike, simply haven’t done enough homework.” – William J. O’Neil You can’t keep a ...
  • Morning News: February 24, 2017
    Oil Prices Fall as U.S. Crude Inventories Rise Further China Overtakes U.S., France as Germany’s Biggest Trading Partner China Says No Intention Of Using Currency ...
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  • 10 Monday AM Reads
    And the winner for best morning reads goes to  . . . wait a moment . . . umm . . . there’s been a ...
  • Best Markets Since 1900?
    What has been the best performing markets over the past century plus?     click for ginormous graphic Source: Bloomberg   The post Best ...
  • Historical Echoes: Are There Any Banks on Bank Street?
    Historical Echoes: Are There Any Banks on Bank Street? Amy Farber Liberty Street Economics, JANUARY 20, 2017         Bank Street in New ...
  • Bill Nye Saves the World
    Meet the correspondents for Bill Nye Saves the World. Coming to Netflix Spring 2017.     The post Bill Nye Saves the World appeared ...
  • Muse to Steve Bannon . . .
    Wherein I return from a relaxing vacation to learn I am a muse to POTUS advisor Steve Bannon: Normally, coming back from vacation, it takes ...
  • Sweet Shortable Sixteen
    This content is only available to Slope+ users.
  • Another Look at ETFs
  • Weekend Update
    Note from Tim: I wanted to preface this thoughtful post from Rev with something that happens very rarely……..a coupon to Slope Plus for those of ...
  • “When the Pig Tops”
    Note from Tim: I wanted to preface this (typically superb) post from NFTRH with something that happens very rarely.…….a coupon to Slope Plus for those ...
  • Prepare to Submerge
    I believe the emerging markets peaked on Thursday…….. You can see what this looks like on a longer-term chart:
  • Don’t Make The Same Mistake As Norway
    My latest post for Alpha Baskets looks at asset allocation including the the possibility that the Government Pension Fund of Norway might increase its equity ...
  • A Little Bumpier, But Higher!
    The weekly Market Update is posted at Alpha Baskets and includes the following; The IPO for Saudi Aramco seems to be running into some snags ...
  • The Blurry Line Between Active & Passive
    My latest post for Alpha Baskets looks at a well written article that I think asks the wrong question. From the post; The first bullet ...
  • Political Volatility? Equities Still Don’t Care
    The weekly Market Update is posted and includes the following; Anecdotally we have had several inquiries about whether now is the time to jump out ...
  • Turns Out MLPs Are Risky
    My latest post for Alpha Baskets looks at the newfound understanding of the risks inherent to MLPs. From the post; I’ve always thought that a ...
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  • Why growth can be a killer
    It's as if we're wired for growth.  "Growth is good." "If you're not growing you're dying." Everyone wants to be growing, personally, physically, mentally.  Businesses ...
  • Podcast interview plus a new investing system course
    Planet Microcap PodcastI recently had the chance to be interviewed by Robert Kraft on the Planet Microcap ...
  • Homemade economic indicators
    It was the summer of 2006, my wife and I had been married a year and we were going on our first real vacation since ...
  • Why I don't use watch lists
    I remember as a kid sitting in a chair near our kitchen with my grandfather two chairs away.  I was leafing through a toy catalog. ...
  • Is this bank a quadruple or a zero?
    In the market risk equals reward, or so they say.  High risk equals a higher reward.  In the case of Enterprise Bank (EFSG) the bank's ...
  • The Threat of Threats
    Not long ago, the EU was a model of reconciliation, peace, and prosperity; today, it is a model of fear – and it is scaring ...
  • A Tax on Robots?
    Bill Gates thinks that, to ease the social costs implied by automation’s displacement effects, robots should be required to pay taxes. But why make life ...
  • Don’t Cry for Corporate America
    In an ideal world, it would be nice to streamline, simplify, and even reduce tax and regulatory burdens on US businesses. But business is not ...
  • How Imports Boost Employment
    According to today’s populists, “good jobs” in US manufacturing have been “lost” to competition from imports and preferential trading arrangements. But this narrative does not ...
  • The Battle for Britain
    British voters decided by a slim majority last June to leave the EU. But they were never consulted on the terms of withdrawal, and with ...
  • REITs Rebound And Commodities Slump
    US real estate investment trusts (REITs) scored a strong gain last week, posting the biggest return among the major asset classes, based on a set ...
  • Book Bits | 25 February 2017
    ● The Vanishing Middle Class: Prejudice and Power in a Dual Economy By Peter Temin Summary via publisher (MIT Press) The United States is becoming ...
  • Trumponomics vs. Economic Forecasts
    Economic forecasting that’s largely informed by politics is a treacherous affair, but it may be unavoidable in the current climate. If you’re a Donald Trump ...
  • A Bull Market For Junk Bonds As Interest Rates Rise
    Federal Reserve official are considering another interest-rate hike, according to yesterday’s release of minutes for the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 monetary policy meeting. The hawkish tone ...
  • Most Forecasters See Stronger US GDP Growth In Q1
    The US economy is headed for a firmer expansion in this year’s first quarter, according to a range of forecasts. The outlook for a moderately ...
  • Brace for a volatility spike
    Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term ...
  • Solving the data puzzle at the center of monetary policy
    There has been much hand wringing by economists over the falling labor force participation rate (LFPR). As the chart below shows, the prime age LFPR, ...
  • Stay cautious, but wait for the break
    Mid-week market update: Markets behave different at tops and bottoms. Bottoms are often V-shaped and reflect panic. Tops are usually slower to develop. Hence the trader's ...
  • Negative real yields = Equity sell signal?
    An reader asked me my opinion about this tweet by Nautilus Research. According to this study, equities have performed poorly once the inflation-adjusted 10-year ...
  • Watch what they do, not just what they say
    Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term ...
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  • point of view
    A trip to the theater leads to some thoughts about the incomplete picture that we get from our own limited perspective.
  • the investment ecosystem
    The conditions are in place for some big changes in the investment industry environment over the next few years. Will you be ready?
  • watching the flows
    The cash flows moving from manager to manager and strategy to strategy get plenty of attention, but some important aspects of those flows are easily ...
  • in the company of women
    What kinds of people will investment organizations need to succeed in the future? How will they need to work together?
  • the tests ahead
    In an unexpected development, the beliefs and techniques that were ridiculed after the financial crisis are more in vogue today. Some musings about that.
  • Six Sigma Buffett, Taxes, Fund Returns etc.
    Whenever I read about Buffett and other great managers, what I tend to see all the time are things like, "xx has beaten the market ...
  • Bogle Book, Indexing etc.
    I have watched and listened to John Bogle for years and always thought he was great, but I never read any of his books. I ...
  • Overbought!!?
    So, the market has been going crazy after the election and people keep talking about how 'overbought' the market is. Well, the market certainly has ...
  • Bonds Down, Stocks Up!
    So bonds are 'crashing' and stocks are going up. Some say that this can't continue; you can't have stocks and bonds go in opposite directions ...
  • Active Play: Pzena Investment Management Inc. (PZN)
    So, continuing with the theme of active investing, I decided to take a look at Pzena Investment Management again. I've been watching it for a ...
  • Links for 02-27-17
    How Imports Boost Employment - Anne Krueger Whatever happened to secular stagnation? - Gavyn Davies Neoliberalism & productivity - Stumbling and Mumbling Machine Learning and ...
  • Arrow, Edgeworth, and Millicent Garrett Fawcett
    Rajiv Sethi: Arrow, Edgeworth, and Millicent Garrett Fawcett: There's not much one can say about Kenneth Arrow that hasn't already been said, but there's one ...
  • Farewell to Kenneth Arrow, a Gentle Genius of Economics
    In case you couldn't get to the WSJ article by Larry Summers, written in tribute to Kenneth Arrow, here's an open link: Farewell to Kenneth ...
  • Links for 02-25-17
    Maid In America - Paul Krugman The NAIRU: a response to critics - mainly macro Farewell to Kenneth Arrow, a Gentle Genius of Economics - ...
  • Paul Krugman: Death and Tax Cuts
    "So why do Republicans hate Obamacare so much?": Death and Tax Cuts, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: Across the country, Republicans have been facing crowds ...
  • Carolina Crazy
    Tonight Duke University and the University of North Carolina will play a basketball game on the Duke campus (ESPN, 8pm ET) and thus renew the ...
  • 2017 Investment Outlook
    2016 brought many wild surprises. The biggest and most obvious is summed up perfectly in two words: President Trump. Donald J. Trump, despite no political ...
  • Nice Press
    Above the Market has gotten some very nice press of late, most of it of the “best of” variety. I am grateful for the honor ...
  • Market Monitor (4Q 2016)
  • Hoping for a Regulatory Miracle
    The newest issue of Research magazine in out and my column is now available online. I hope you’ll read the excerpt below and then give ...
  • The Recession Is Over
    It’s easy to believe that the strength in the US economy since Election Day has a great deal to do ...
  • Running Hotter
    There is only one obvious explanation for the remarkable vertical ascent in the Small Business Optimism Index over the past ...
  • Are There Enough Shovel-Ready Workers?
    Is promising to create 25 million jobs an unrealistic whopper by a fellow who tends to tell whoppers? Or is ...
  • Washington’s Mud Pit
    President Donald Trump has certainly hit the ground running. He is moving fast to implement his agenda and to deliver ...
  • DJIA 20,000: Counting on Earnings
    Today was another happy day for the bull market that started on March 9, 2009, when the DJIA was 6547.05. ...
  • Weekly Market Summary
    Summary: All of the US equity indices made new all-time highs again this week. Treasuries were the biggest winner. A drawdown of at least 5-8% ...
  • Weekly Market Summary
    Summary: US equities continue to make new all-time highs each week, supported by strong equity fund inflows and macro data that has exceeded expectations. Surprisingly, ...
  • Fund Managers' Current Asset Allocation - February
    Summary: Global equities are more than 25% higher than in February 2016. A tailwind for this rally has been the bearish positioning of investors, with ...
  • Sales and Earnings Back At Highs, But So Are Valuations
    Summary: In the past year, S&P profits have grown 46% yoy. Sales are 4.5% higher. By some measures, profit margins are back at their prior ...
  • February Macro Update: Strong Start to 2017
    Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the ...
  • Athletes’ Feats: TMSIDK Episode 8
    For our sports-themed episode, we left out all the tired cliches and instead jammed it full of odd trophies, hidden advantages, surprising innovations and... Trouble with a ...
  • No Hollywood Ending for the Visual-Effects Industry
    Season 6, Episode 625 On this week’s episode of Freakonomics Radio: In a world where Hollywood movies are visually extravagant…why has the visual effects industry in ...
  • No Hollywood Ending for the Visual-Effects Industry
    In their chase for a global audience, American movie studios spend billions to make their films look amazing. But almost none of those dollars stay ...
  • Perfection: TMSIDK Episode 7
    In 1921, Congress considered a bill that would add a 13th month called Vern. The goal was to create a year with 13 identical months ...
  • Is the American Dream Really Dead?
    Season 6, Episode 24 This week on Freakonomics Radio: Stephen J. Dubner asks, “Is the American Dream Really Dead?” For years, the U.S. government has been trying ...
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  • Carolina Crazy
    Tonight Duke University and the University of North Carolina will play a basketball game on the Duke campus (ESPN, 8pm ET) and thus renew the ...
  • 2017 Investment Outlook
    2016 brought many wild surprises. The biggest and most obvious is summed up perfectly in two words: President Trump. Donald J. Trump, despite no political ...
  • Nice Press
    Above the Market has gotten some very nice press of late, most of it of the “best of” variety. I am grateful for the honor ...
  • Market Monitor (4Q 2016)
  • Hoping for a Regulatory Miracle
    The newest issue of Research magazine in out and my column is now available online. I hope you’ll read the excerpt below and then give ...
  • February 26, 2017
    When I got up on Friday morning and saw the NASDAQ futures down 30 or so, I tried to remember the last time I had ...
  • February 22, 2017
    The Dow Jones Industrials Index continued its monotonous ascent with its ninth-straight up day in a row. Volume was slightly lighter as sellers have remained ...
  • February 19, 2017
    I consider myself a fairly open-minded person. I understand that the market hasn’t had a 1% move in many days, and I understand that the ...
  • February 15, 2017
    The market began the week with an instructive demonstration of why paying attention to the pundits’ worries about excessively bullish sentiment, a low VIX, and ...
  • February 12, 2017
    It seems one can’t really look anywhere these days without seeing an article or a pundit decrying the fact that the market “hasn’t had a ...
  • Stock Exchange Conflicts of Interests
      Some products and services offered by the stock exchanges have been at the center of many market structure issues. Colocation, proprietary data feeds,  special ...
  • Nasdaq Withdraws Controversial Retail Post-Only Order Proposal
      Nasdaq has decided to withdraw their controversial proposal for a Retail Post-only order type.  The SEC noted this in a filing that was published yesterday: "On October 13, ...
  • The Hypothetical Case of the Undetectable Spoofer
      Last week, Citigroup agreed to pay a $25 million fine to the CFTC for violating section 4c(a)(5) of the Commodity Exchange Act.  This section was added ...
  • The World is Awash in Bullshit
    This is really the best paragraph I have read so far in 2017: The world is awash in bullshit. Politicians are unconstrained by facts. Science is ...
  • Maker-Taker Needs To Go
      Congratulations to our friends at IEX for reaching the 2% market share milestone yesterday.  As you all know by now, we are big fans ...
  • Getting a fix on the VIX
    Below is a chart of the VIX daily vs. a rolling percentile ranking +/- 3St Dev. This ...
  • The Quincunx Page Turner
    First, let me say that this post is primarily a page turner. Turning the page on the blog to free up white space for the ...
  • Party like its 1999 - A Late cycle resurgence
    In the financial markets, participants are always looking for analogies or historical examples to glean information from. Technical analysts look for chart patterns, value investors ...
  • Trading Trump
    Donald Trump’s executive order on immigration from Muslim-majority countries has firmly put to rest ...
  • Order, order
    Given that Macro Man is in absentia as a moderator for most of the time, he has decided to make a small change to maintain ...
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  • Knowing the count
    I just finished Ed Thorp’s new autobiography A Man for All Markets and I really enjoyed it. Thorp is, among other things, the man who wrote Beat the Dealer ...
  • A most unusually average year
    By now 2016 is far off in the mirror and everyone is focused on more current events, but I want to take us back a ...
  • Remaking Retirement Savings in America
    I think a lot about retirement savings. I do retirement planning for individuals, I manage individual and family retirement portfolios, I recommend and manage retirement ...
  • 2016 In Review
    Market Overview Markets turned up the excitement in the fourth quarter, especially with respect to US stocks and domestic interest rates. Stocks were sharply higher after ...
  • Slow down to go faster
    (Warning, bike metaphors ahead). Last weekend I went out for an ice long ride on the mountain bike as winter is threatening on the front range. ...
  • Company Notes Digest 2.24.17
    Each week we read dozens of transcripts from earnings calls and presentations as part of our investment process. Below is a weekly post which contains some ...
  • Company Notes Digest 2.17.17
    Each week we read dozens of transcripts from earnings calls and presentations as part of our investment process. Below is a weekly post which contains some ...
  • Company Notes Digest 2.10.17
    Each week we read dozens of transcripts from earnings calls and presentations as part of our investment process. Below is a weekly post which contains some ...
  • Company Notes Digest 2.3.17
    Each week we read dozens of transcripts from earnings calls and presentations as part of our investment process. Below is a weekly post which contains some ...
  • Company Notes Digest 1.27.17
    Each week we read dozens of transcripts from earnings calls and presentations as part of our investment process. Below is a weekly post which contains some ...
  • Charts that bear watching
    Here are some charts I've been following for quite some time. Many of them show interesting relationships between seemingly-unrelated asset classes, and all tell an ...
  • Reflections on the economy and inflation
    Despite all the action in the equity market, there's not much going on in the economy that's visible. Concurrent data suggest that the economy continues ...
  • Claims in uncharted waters; is the labor market too tight?
    As the chart above shows, the hallmark ...
  • January jobs: more of the same
    Job gains in January beat expectations by a significant margin (+227K vs. +180K), but from a big-picture perspective, nothing much has changed over the past six ...
  • Trump Run
    I've been skiing Deer Valley this week with my brother, and yesterday he took me to a run off the beaten path called "Trump," which ...
  • Staying with the US Digital Service
    A few months ago, I took a leave of absence from Google to do a stint with the US Digital Service. A lot of people ...
  • A brief update
    Over the last couple years, I’ve seen more and more people in technology trying to make government work better. They’re idealists who are also making ...
  • Thanks, Amit
    Amit Singhal just announced that he’s retiring toward the end of the month. Amit has been a formative part of Google’s search team, but he’s ...
  • Solving a Verizon issue (Nexus 5X)
    I solved a problem today and figured that I’d document it for the rest of the world. Every time someone left me a voicemail on ...
  • Halloween 2015: USB Drive
    I went a little overboard for Halloween last year. And as you can tell from my the Halloween category on my blog, sometimes I get ...
  • The Public Data Layer
    I have been thinking a lot lately about the increasing importance of the “public data layer” — meaning, data that we will need (“we” applied ...
  • Experience ↔ Design ↔ Policy
    People often ask me how I ended up working in venture capital, and more specifically in a role that deals with policy issues (“policy” broadly ...
  • Unintended Consequences
    I’ve been struck recently by the power and surprise of unintended consequences. For example, a recent Slate article digs into flip side of the life-saving potential ...
  • Going after it
    I’m in SF this week with the USV team – once a year we all come out here together, do a bunch of meetings and ...
  • The new normal
    The week before last, my in-laws were hit by a truck while crossing the street after dinner. The time since has been a disorienting whirlwind ...
  • Good, Not Average, Not Great
    I was reading through The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Shot column, done by the estimable @SoberLook, and saw the following graph and text: The S&P ...
  • Everyone Needs Good Advice
    =================================================== I am a fiduciary in my work that I do for my clients. I am also the largest investor in my own strategies, promising ...
  • Book Review: The Difference
    In general, I don’t like books on personnel management.  That’s mostly because good management techniques are mostly obvious, and there are typically a lot of ...
  • Problems with Constant Compound Interest (6)
    ================================= My last post produced the following question: What if your time horizon was 60 years? Would a 5% real return be achievable? I am ...
  • Two Questions on Returns
    ============================================ I recently received two sets of questions from readers. Here we go: David, I am a one-time financial professional now running a modest “home ...
  • A Monday Laugh
    I was on my way to NYC today and got stopped by the machines because they sensed ‘explosive materials’ on my hands. I had just eaten ...
  • Permaoptimistic and Why Investing Matters
    Michael had this great investing post today about how little it takes to make a difference. My friend Josh is out of the closet ...
  • On The Road Again…
    I am heading out on a major east coast swing ...
  • Everyone Should Index…More Opportunity for Me
    I think indexing is great. It’s what most people should do and probably will do. No more alpha, beta, gamma, fibonacci, theta or earnings ...
  • I Survived The BULL Market of 2017
    Charlie Munger says this about investing: It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid. Classic. Personally, I believe we are in a ...
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  • This Time is Like No Other
    I know I am in the minority when I say that the world finances are on the brink of a major sea change. Of course ...
  • Shorting Junk
    Its time to say goodbye to this crazy rally in junk with people completely ignoring risk in favour of yield. It will comeback to bite. ...
  • One more Trumpet
    I think it is highly probable we will get one more rally before the markets take a serious breather. I am flat the market with ...
  • Last Day of the Year
    It has been a very quiet year for me on the Sefirot front. I have to admit almost all my energy has been channelled towards ...
  • Calling a Top
    I have quietly sat by while the markets have continued to climb to incredible heights. Selling my remaining 50 SPY at the market open, which ...
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  • Daily Note – A Hopeful Diagnosis?
    Summary Systemic Financial Risk Brewing? Don’t expect banks to run out of money! Market’s overly pessimistic on growth? United States: Housing Data holding up Good ...
  • Daily Note – The man without a plan?
    Summary ECB has no plan and looking to surprise! Winging it with monetary policy! Municipal bond buying is still on the table Complexity in a ...
  • Daily Note – Mario’s Christmas gift?
    Summary Global market round-up ECB opens the door to easing in December What exactly will the ECB do? Good morning, Global equities rallied and EURUSD ...
  • Daily Note – Forget 1987, think 2011!
    Summary Beware historical analogies! A mood of sobriety & the covet of safety A Corporate profit recession Good morning, The market crash worth thinking about ...
  • Daily Note – Fed fears
    Summary Corporate finance views US rate rises – someone has to be wrong! United States: Retail Sales hit by weather China: Economy being pumped with ...
  • Under Armour, Under Siege
    From TheRobinReport.com --- The only thing on Earth that can grow into infinity and beyond is the bamboo in my front lawn. Four sprigs of it ...
  • An Open Letter to Tiffany
    From TheRobinReport.com --- Dear Mr. Kowalski: On Super Bowl Sunday as the Tiffany brand was about to be served up to a massive international audience via ...
  • The Continuing Handbag Saga
    From TheRobinReport.com --- Michael Kors disappointed investors last week (February 7) with its sixth consecutive quarterly comp store sales decline along with a glum outlook, which ...
  • The Shoptalk Connection
    From TheRobinReport.com --- For almost two years, we’ve been at the forefront of developing a modern industry narrative and redefining the community of retail innovators. Our ...
  • Amazon, Yada, Yada, Yada
    From TheRobinReport.com --- Are we having fun yet? I don’t think so. Every day, and usually more than once a day, some new tidbit about Amazon ...
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  • China wage fact of the day
    Average hourly wages in China’s manufacturing sector trebled between 2005 and 2016 to $3.60, according to Euromonitor, while during the same period manufacturing wages fell ...
  • Open-minded vs. hungry-minded
    From Dan Wang: Let me take this opportunity to register a complaint with the term “open-minded,” which is increasingly praised as an important virtue. I’ve ...
  • Sunday assorted links
    1. The weird economics of IKEA. 2. Sweden rethinks immigration (NYT). 3. Jerome Tuccille has passed away (NYT).  And Russell Hardin has passed away. 4. ...
  • Brazil pension facts of the day
    Pension spending is already the equivalent of 12% of GDP, half as much again as the average among members of the OECD, a club of ...
  • &pizza
    I was walking from Union Station to about NY Ave. and 11th, and needed to eat along the way.  I passed through Chinatown, but to ...
  • A Little Can Go A Long Way
    When thinking about their financial situation, most people spend way more time thinking about investing than they do about spending and saving. If I had ...
  • Handcuff Volunteers
    A few weeks after the election, a friend of mine told me he sold all of his stocks in his 401(k). He was happy with ...
  • How To Survive A Bear Market
    Not everybody can sit through a bear market. Sure, guys like Buffett and Munger never sell, but for the 99% of us who have emotions, ...
  • The Bear Market That Nobody Talks About
    It’s generally accepted that the current bull market began in March of 2009, which means that stocks have been running for 2002 trading days. I’m not ...
  • Should Stocks Be Worth More Now Than They Used To Be?
    “Strange things happened near the boundaries”- James Gleick Stocks are not cheap. The CAPE ratio is 28.46, above the long-term average of 16.73 and more ...

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