Financial News Aggregator and a little more!

  • The Secret to Acing an Interview After 50
    This post The Secret to Acing an Interview After 50 appeared first on Daily Reckoning. Ever find yourself in a position where ...
  • Major Recession Alarm Sounds
    This post Major Recession Alarm Sounds appeared first on Daily Reckoning. Bad economic news across the world sends stocks reeling... The post
  • China: Paper Tiger
    This post China: Paper Tiger appeared first on Daily Reckoning. China’s shock currency devaluation last week begs the following questions: Is China ...
  • Why China’s a Paper Tiger
    This post Why China’s a Paper Tiger appeared first on Daily Reckoning. Markets are still digesting last week’s Chinese devaluation that sent ...
  • EXPOSED: Another Currency Manipulator!
    This post EXPOSED: Another Currency Manipulator! appeared first on Daily Reckoning. “Having a strong currency is desirable. But in today’s world outside ...
  • The Variance Risk Premium is Pervasive
    The variance risk premium (VRP) refers to the fact that, over time, the option-implied volatility has tended to exceed the realized volatility of the same ...
  • Do Most Individual Stocks Outperform Cash? No.
    I'd argue that a typical investor believes the following--In the past and over the long run, stocks outperformed bonds.[ref]and definitely beat cash![/ref] However, as highlighted ...
  • Is Time Really Money?
    Risk and Investment Horizon: Is Time Really Money? Ekaterina E. Emm and Ruben C. TrevinoJournal of Investing, 2019A version of this paper can be found hereWant ...
  • There and Back Again: My 180 Back to Simplicity
    I’m 34. I have some savings (long-term investments), earn a respectable living, and am comfortable—and happy—spending modestly relative to income. I have a simple balance ...
  • Betting Against Beta (BAB) Construction
    One of the more popular equity strategies over the past decade is low volatility investing. Simply put, this is a systematic strategy that invests in ...
  • Round 3 of the tariff wars
    The stock market hit an air pocket today, buffeted late last week by news that Trump had threatened to unleash a new round of tariffs ...
  • A non-fatal Fed mistake
    Yesterday the FOMC decided to reduce its short-term interest rate target by 25 bps. It was a move in the right direction (as I
  • Consumer confidence is soaring
    If you happen to watch the Democratic debates tonight and tomorrow, think about this: consumer confidence these days is approaching record high levels, and the ...
  • Random thoughts and chart updates
    For weeks I've been struggling to come up with a post that puts recent events and trends into a coherent perspective. It's been difficult, however, ...
  • Jobs growth is slowing, despite the big June gain
    Despite a stronger-than-expected June gain of 191K private nonfarm payrolls (+191K vs +150K), private sector jobs growth—when measured over multi-month periods—has slowed from a Dec. ...
  • Room to Disagree
    IN DECEMBER 1954, 23-year-old John Neff hitchhiked from Ohio to New York in search of work. A Navy veteran, Neff had recently graduated college near ...
  • Pay It Down
    DECIDING WHETHER to buy bonds or pay down the mortgage used to be a tricky decision. Not anymore: Paying extra on your home loan will ...
  • Those Millennials
    MUCH CRITICISM is leveled against millennials, often defined as those born between 1981 and 1996. The criticism is frequently directed at their money and career decisions, ...
  • The Right Stuff
    IT CAN BE HARD to find time to make healthy meals, plus—with the convenience of fast food restaurants—why bother? It’s way easier to enter the ...
  • Works If You Can’t
    BE HONEST: When was the last time you thought about disability insurance? As co-founder of a website that sells insurance, it’s a topic I think ...
  • Yield Curve Inverts: Head for the Hills?
    The stock market tanked on Wednesday, August 14 because the yield spread between the 10-year US Treasury bond and the 2-year Treasury note turned ...
  • The Great Inflation Delusion
    The Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) came up with lots of headline-grabbing shock-and-awe programs over the past ...
  • Embezzelcoin
    In late 2017, when bitcoin was soaring toward a record-high price of $18,961 on 12/18/17, a distant relative ...
  • Running Out of Workers?
    I am not convinced that the demand for labor was hard hit by Trump’s escalating trade war during ...
  • Income Stagnation Is a Progressive Myth
    The Progressives claim that—despite the (Old) New Deal, the Great Society, and Obamacare—the incomes of the vast majority ...
  • China Kicks Investors While They’re Down
    By Craig Erlam via Iris.xyz Jitters have well and truly set in and equity markets are suffering the consequences as investors head for safety in ...
  • Does the Yield Curve Inversion Signal Trouble Ahead?
    By J.P. Morgan Asset Management via Iris.xyz Earlier this week, a closely-watched economic indicator, the difference in yield between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and ...
  • What’s Going on With the Yuan?
    By J.P. Morgan Asset Management via Iris.xyz Following a dramatic escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China early last week, the Chinese yuan ...
  • U.S. Treasury Curve Signals Distress
    By IndexIQ via Iris.xyz Today, bond investors sounded the alarms. The 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields fell, causing the 2-year vs. 10-year portion of ...
  • Gold and the Cycles of History
    By Joe Foster via Iris.xyz Gold Consolidates Gains Amid Easing Rates Following the June breakout, the gold price spent July consolidating gains above the $1,400 ...
  • 10 Sunday Reads
    My easy like Sunday morning reads: • WeWTF (Scott Galloway) • Men who do not work during their prime years: What do the National Longitudinal ...
  • The Dow Drops
    This is what happens when you put an amateur behind the wheel. Government is a professional job, and Hillary Clinton was demonized by the right ...
  • MIB: Josh Wolfe, Lux Capital
    This week, we speak with Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital. The venture firm was set up to support scientists and entrepreneurs who pursue counter-conventional ...
  • 10 Weekend Reads
    The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish blend coffee, grab a float in the pool, and get ready for our longer form ...
  • Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.16.19
    Succinct Summations for the week ending August 16th, 2019 Positives: 1. POTUS saves Xmas! Ok, not quite, but fearing the deceleration of retail sales, the ...
  • Audit your trading the way pros do it
    Traders are always interested in improving their techniques. Today, I would like to offer a framework for thinking about your trading, using the way fund ...
  • A White Swan market
    Mid-week market update: I am writing my mid-week update a day early because of the extraordinary volatility in the stock market.My wife and ...
  • A correction, or trade war meltdown?
    Preface: Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term ...
  • Ripe for a counter-trend rally
    Mid-week market update: My trading model has turned bullish, and there are plenty of signs that the market is ripe for a relief rally. There ...
  • USDCNY at 7? It's not you, it's me
    The market has adopted a risk-off tone today because the Chinese yuan rose above the rate of 7 to 1 to the USD. The move ...
  • The Brexit Price Spike
    In June 2016, citizens of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union by a small majority. This looming departure became known as “Brexit.” ...
  • Why Is Inflation Low Globally?
    A hot economy eventually boosts inflation. Such is the simple wisdom of the Phillips curve. Yet inflation across developed countries has been remarkably weak since ...
  • How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?
    Trend GDP growth has slowed about 2.3 percentage points to 1.7% since 1950. Different economic sectors have contributed to this slowing to varying degrees depending ...
  • Is Slow Still the New Normal for GDP Growth?
    Estimates suggest the new normal pace for U.S. GDP growth remains between 1½% and 1¾%, noticeably slower than the typical pace since World War II. ...
  • Why Is the Fed’s Balance Sheet Still So Big?
    The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is significantly larger today than it was before the financial crisis of 2008–2009. Rising demand for currency due to greater ...
  • The Asset of Time (Hacking)
    I can’t remember where I picked up what I’m about to share. Maybe it was something I heard or a study I read. The source ...
  • Hacking Happiness
    Who doesn’t like being happy? Grumpy people that’s who. I’ve been there. You have too, grumpy pants McGhee.  It’s okay. We all get grumpy from ...
  • Investing In Yourself: Input/Output
    In investing (and life), pretty much every decision you make has a nuanced outcome. That is to say, there is very little black or white ...
  • Summer Daze
    It was a hot, humid east coast summer day. We were the kids of 1984. Back then the parents in our neighborhood had the same ...
  • The Heart: Lunch With Jim O’Shaugnessy
    When I first started writing here on I heart Wall Street, it was simply out of frustration. The title came to me serendipitously while talking with ...
  • Round 3 of the tariff wars
    The stock market hit an air pocket today, buffeted late last week by news that Trump had threatened to unleash a new round of tariffs ...
  • A non-fatal Fed mistake
    Yesterday the FOMC decided to reduce its short-term interest rate target by 25 bps. It was a move in the right direction (as I
  • Consumer confidence is soaring
    If you happen to watch the Democratic debates tonight and tomorrow, think about this: consumer confidence these days is approaching record high levels, and the ...
  • Random thoughts and chart updates
    For weeks I've been struggling to come up with a post that puts recent events and trends into a coherent perspective. It's been difficult, however, ...
  • Jobs growth is slowing, despite the big June gain
    Despite a stronger-than-expected June gain of 191K private nonfarm payrolls (+191K vs +150K), private sector jobs growth—when measured over multi-month periods—has slowed from a Dec. ...
  • CWS Market Review – August 16, 2019
    “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go ...
  • Morning News: August 16, 2019
    Trump Says China Talks ‘Productive’; Beijing Vows Tariff Retaliation China Ramps Up Brazil Soybean Imports, Rebuffing U.S. Crops Saudi Arabia is Dramatically Changing Its Oil ...
  • Morning News: August 15, 2019
    Markets Are Shaken by New Signs of Global Economic Trouble Here’s Why the German Economy is Tanking and Most Likely Headed for Recession China Signals ...
  • Talking with Tobias
    Tobias Carlisle was kind enough to invite me on his podcast. I had a lot of fun chatting about the market and all things investing.
  • The 2/10 Spread Inverts
    For the first time in more than a decade, the yield on two-year Treasuries is greater than the yield on ten-year Treasuries. As someone who ...
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  • Halloween 2018: Crab claws!
    Do you need something to cheer you up? You got it: I should explain this costume a little bit. At the US Digital Service, we ...
  • Some terrible personal news
    Cindy Cutts, my wife and best friend, passed away earlier this week. While I was traveling for work recently, Cindy went to visit her family ...
  • Talking to Mr. Money Mustache about the US Digital Service
    Last week, I passed my one year anniversary as head of the US Digital Service (USDS). So when Mr. Money Mustache asked for an interview, ...
  • Staying with the US Digital Service
    A few months ago, I took a leave of absence from Google to do a stint with the US Digital Service. A lot of people ...
  • A brief update
    Over the last couple years, I’ve seen more and more people in technology trying to make government work better. They’re idealists who are also making ...
  • 2Q 2019 Market Overview
    Markets gave investors a brief scare in May with a mid-period decline of around 7% attributed to ongoing trade war concerns, but recovered quickly. Once ...
  • 1Q 2019 Market Overview
    If the last quarter of 2018 was scary, the first quarter of 2019 has been quietly wonderful, and most people haven’t noticed. Stocks across the ...
  • Wrecking the Curve
    Inside the industry there are a fair amount of studies done to show what the average Registered Investment Advisory firm looks like. What is average ...
  • The problem of N=1
    I am big on evidence, big on reason. Probably at times bordering on psychopathic in how much I try to rely on reason over emotion. ...
  • 2018 In Review
    Well. Here we are, folks. You just went through one of the most dramatic declines in US stocks in a single quarter in decades. How’d ...
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  • What I Learned at Camp Kotok
    I am back from my 14th annual Maine fishing camp and the mood was decidedly different this year. The private event at Leen’s Lodge is ...
  • Larry Kotlikoff on The Big Con
    I have a special treat for you. I’m at Camp Kotok, the annual economics/fishing retreat in Maine. Knowing internet connectivity would be scarce here, I ...
  • An Opportunity in the Chaos
    One reason the economy is so fascinating is the way things just… happen. Growth blossoms if everyone just follows their own incentives and nothing gets ...
  • Money of the Future
    As I work on my book about the future, I think a lot about the ways possible events will affect our money. But I’m also ...
  • Recession Rumbles
    I’m often asked if recession is coming, and for quite different reasons. Some people worry about their investments. Others are worried about their employment or ...
  • the future of analysis
    The field of intelligence analysis can offer important analogies to those involved in investment decision making. The former, says one expert, "is at an ...
  • pay to play
    There are many behind-the-scenes agreements and relationships that affect the quality of information that we have about investments, potentially driving investor behavior in detrimental ways.
  • mind the gaps
    Long-term excellence in investment organizations comes from continuous improvement and the willingness to identify and remedy the shortfalls that exist.
  • watching you
    With the emergence of new surveillance capabilities, there are questions about what constitutes productive investment work and where the lines of oversight should be drawn.
  • a chemistry is performed
    Throughout the investment world, whether you're analyzing a company or an asset manager, the amount of transparency available to you should be a part of ...
  • Liquidity: Running for the Exits
    Liquidity vanishes when you need it most. That isn’t an especially original observation. It’s like saying that the exit doors are always jammed precisely when ...
  • What Hedge Funds Do When the Lights Go Out
    A new paper looks at how hedge funds adjust their information acquisition and trading behavior as analyst coverage changes—and more specifically, when certain stocks cease ...
  • Four Lessons from the Sale of Refinitiv
    Less than a year ago, Thomson Reuters sold a majority interest in its financial and risk product portfolio, a critical part of that corporate domain, ...
  • QUANT STRATEGIES: THEORY VS. REALITY
    By Nicolas Rabener of FactorResearch (@FactorResearch) INTRODUCTION When pitching an investment product with a backtested history the frequent response from potential investors is that they ...
  • How Endowments and Foundations Look at Hedge Funds
    Cowen’s Capital Introduction Group has compiled information on what the endowment and foundation community is thinking about hedge funds and how best to invest in ...

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